ALDS Preview

Let's dissect this divisional match up by breaking down the keys (in order of importance) to winning at this time of the year:

Starting Pitching: Games 1 and 4 -- Lackey (12-5 3.75) vs. Lester (16-6 3.21 ERA), Games 2 and 5 -- Santana (16-7 3.49) vs. Dice-K (18-3 2.90 ERA) and Game 3 -- Beckett (12-10 4.03 ERA) vs. Saunders (17-7 3.41 ERA).

While the Angels are a very balanced team (like the Sox) their starting pitching has kept them in games throughout the season. No team has a decided advantage in this category. Lackey and Santana struggled last year in the playoffs vs the Sox while Lester (one start in Game 4 of the World Series) and Dice-K performed well enough to help the Sox win it all. Beckett's injury is key here. I don't care about the records, Beckett is the team's #1 starter. His playoff performances last year and in 2003 for the Marlins were both dominating. His oblique injury is a concern. We must believe he beats Saunders in Game 3 at Fenway. Pitching only once in the divisional series bodes well for the ALCS but we have to get there first.

ADVANTAGE -- slightly to Sox

Bullpen -- K Rod (MLB record 62 saves, 2.24 ERA) vs. Papelbon (41 saves, 2.34 ERA) is a wash. The Angels strength lies in their middle relief. With a lead entering the seventh inning, these guys have been unbeatable. This Jose Arredondo (10-2 1.61 ERA) guy has been unbelievable. Throw in Scott Sheilds (1.62 ERA), converted starter Jerad Weaver and these guys have filthy stuff. Their weakness is having to use Darren Oliver to get lefties (Ortiz, Drew) out. The Sox counter with Delcarmen (3.27 ERA), Masterson (3.16 ERA), Lopez (2.43 ERA) and Okijima (2.61 ERA). This is where the Sox will do or die. Many pundits contend this is where the key to the series lies. Okijima's performance is the most vital.

ADVANTAGE -- marginally to Angels

Offensive "Punch" and timely hitting -- This is where the Angels have improved the most since last year's injury plagued playoffs. Mark Teixeira (.358 avg, 43 rbi in 54 games) has been a huge difference maker for this line up. Vlad has excelled (.348 since and like 12 home runs) since the midseason trade. Howie Kendrick is back after an injury and Torii Hunter (21 home runs, 78 rbi) has strengthen the line up. Old guy Garrett Anderson is still around. The Sox counter with Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, and Ortiz. All should produce. It would be nice if Youk and Papi could catch fire. The key to the Sox's line up is whether or not Drew and Lowell can give us some production. A line up with Cora, Lowrie, Varitek / Cash and Kotsay on the bottom of the order is going to put a lot of pressure on the pitching to keep us in every game.

ADVANTAGE -- Toss up

Defense -- Both teams are strong but not spectacular. Hunter has made the Angels considerable better by moving Matthews to rightfield and allowing Anderson to DH. Lowrie at shortstop has stabilized an average Sox defense before his arrival. I expect Lowell, being banged up, will be tested by the Angels speedy guys (Figgins) bunting for hits. The Sox may be able to run on the starting catcher, Jeff Mathis.

ADVANTAGE -- Toss Up

Managers -- Scioscia and Francona are two of the best in the business. Both are battle tested and have proven to keep their cool under the microscope that is the playoffs

ADVANTAGE -- Even

Prediction -- Real tight. Assuming Lowell and Drew are healthy, I like the Sox in four. Not looking forward to Dice-K in Game 5. I know he has been spectacular away from home but ... Winning a game in Anaheim is an absolute must. The Angels "small ball" is overrated versus the veteran Sox. Coco in centerfield is their dream. Look for the Sox to give them some of their own medicine as far as putting pressure on the defense.