ALCS Preview

Let's again dissect this championship series match up by breaking down the keys (in order of importance) to winning at this time of the year. The Angels faltered in the defense and timely hitting areas.



Starting Pitching: Games 1 and 5 -- James Sheilds (14-8 3.56) vs. Dice-K (18-3 2.90 ERA) , Games 2 and 6 --Scott Kazmir (12-8 3.49) vs. Beckett (12-10 4.03 ERA) Game 3 and 7 -Lester (16-6 3.21 ERA) vs. Matt Garza (11-9 3.71 ERA) and Game 4 Wakefield (10-11 4.13 ERA) vs Andy Sonnanstein (13-9 4.38 ERA) .

I loved what Francona had to say about the rotation. The order is not that important. It is a seven game series, thus game one is not any more important than game two or three. Having Beckett and Lester lined up for games six and seven is a great feeling. The Rays are going with the same order they used in the ALDS. From a match up perspective, I like the Sox in the games that Lester (is there anyone in baseball you would rather have on the mound?) and Beckett (the last start was just to get the rust out of the way) are pitching. Sheilds is an absolute bulldog on the mound. He has a presence on the mound that is reminiscent of Curt Schilling -- "I will not let you beat me". Kazmir is not the Sox killer he once was. He is throwing way too many pitches. Garza and Sonnanstein are similar in the fact that they come right after the hitters but must paint the corners to get guys out. The Sox lineup's ability to work counts will benefit them versus these two guys. Let's say the Sox are up 2-1 going to Game 4, Wakefield is the wild card. What he gives or does not give the Sox will be huge.

ADVANTAGE -- Sox - Beckett and Lester to the rescue



Bullpen -- This is the strength of the Rays. Fireballers Grant Balfour (51 games, 6-2, 1.54 ERA) , lefty J.P. Howell (6-1, 2.22 ERA) and closer Dan Wheeler (70 games 3.12 ERA) were all dominate in the ALDS and averaged over a strikeout per inning during the regular season. Sox castoff and submariner Chad Bradford (21 games 1.42 ERA) has filled in nicely also. The Rays beat the Sox ten of eighteen games this past season. Of those ten wins eight were by one run, this was because of the prowess of the Rays bullpen. The Sox bullpen has shaped up nicely since mid season. Okajima and Masterson are the bridge to the spectacular (has never given up an earned run in his postseason career) Papelbon. Lopez and Delcarmen will help also.
The Rays have prospered with this bull pen and it is difficult to bet against this group.

ADVANTAGE -- Rays



Offensive "Punch" and timely hitting -- The Rays did not have one regular bat over .300. They also do not have a steady power source other than Carlos Pena (.247, 31 hr, 102 rbi) and Evan Longoria (.272, 27 hr, 85 rbi). The guy we need to keep off the bases is second baseman Akinori Iwamura (.276, 91 runs). He seems to always be in the middle of a Rays rally. BJ Upton got hot in the ALDS but has done nothing against the Sox this year. Catcher Dioneer Navarro is solid. The Sox got a great series from Jacoby Ellsbury and Jason Bay in the ALDS. JD Drew (does he start game two vs. Kazmir?) looks to be healthy and Jed Lowrie's confidence must be sky high. Dustin Pedroia looks tired from playing 150 plus games in the regular season. David Ortiz owns Sheilds (both James and the Angels Scot) and should have a solid series. Youkilis is as steady as they come.

ADVANTAGE -- Sox -- line up is deeper and more likely to put up some early runs.



Defense -- The Rays infield has been close to spectacular this year. Bartlett and Longoria on the right side of the infield are future gold glovers. The Sox without Lowell take a blow to their defense by playing either Youkilis or Lowrie at one corner then Kotsay at the other. The Sox do have an advantage in outfield defense. The catching matchup scares me a little. Can Varitek (and the pitchers) control the Rays' running game? This is a huge aspect of their offense. Navarro is sold behind the plate but faces the daunting task of dealing with Ellsbury.

ADVANTAGE -- slightly to the Rays



Managers -- Francona has a huge advantage in experience here but Maddon has pushed the right buttons all year long. The handling of the late inning match ups between relievers and the batters is most significant here. I'll go with experience.



ADVANTAGE -- Sox



Prediction -- I would feel better with home field advantage. Look for the crowd in that thing they call a ballpark to be loud and boisterous. The Rays have been rolling all season long. Many predicted their demise but they have answered the bell every time. The Sox look to be peaking at the right time. My big key is Ellsbury and Pedroia getting on base and setting the stage for the middle of the order. I think the rest is pretty predictable -- we know about the Rays bullpen, Lester and Beckett and the Sox offense. I think it comes down to Lester in game seven and his legend will continue to grow.

Sox win a dramatic back and forth series 4 ( games 2,3,6,7) to 3 (1,4,5).