Jason Bay's signing with the New York Mets brings his one and a half year stay in Boston to a close. The Mets are getting a very good player that will hit for power (even in that stadium), take his walks and play 150-160 games. The Red Sox knew Bay's talents and contributions well but ultimately decided the cost was too much. Their initial offer of four years, sixty million was about as high as the team was going to go.
What does this mean for the team? Simply put -- Mike Cameron is the left fielder for the start of the season. There has been some talk about Cameron's signing meaning that Jacoby Ellsbury could be moved in a deal for a big time player. Past history tells us that Theo does not like to move his proven young players. Ellsbury gives the club athleticism (defense and on the bases) that the team seriously lacks. His contract is very club friendly.
An outfield of Cameron, Ellsbury and JD Drew in right is very good defensively. Cameron can move to center to give Ellsbury the occasional day off with Jeremy Heredia backing up in both left and right field.
The question is, Are the Red Sox content with the current roster? My guess is that the baseball operations people are okay with starting spring training with who they currently have under contract. I do think the team will add another arm or two with incentive laden deals -- think low risk money with a possible high reward (i.e. Smoltz, Penny, Saito). These type of deals do not always work out but seem to be worth the risk.
The fun should come in June and July at the trade deadline. However, we are a long way from that.
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Theo Doing Work
The Hot Stove Season is in full swing. The Yankees add Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson, the Mariners spend some dough and acquire Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins and Milton Bradley, and the Phillies trade for Roy Halladay. The Red Sox have also been busy.
As insurance if the club does not re-sign left fielder Jason Bay. The Sox traded lefty reliever Hunter Jones to the Marlins for underachieving outfielder Jeremy Heredia. This seems to be a low risk trade. If Heredia is the everyday left fielder we are in trouble.
Grade -- C
Shortstop Alex Gonzalez does not wait too long and signs for two years with the Blue Jays. Theo plucks free agent shortstop Marco Scutaro for two years. Scutaro is coming off of a career year in Toronto. He is just a stop gap until 20 year old, Cuban defector Jose Iglesias is ready. I like the acquisition. Scutaro is not as good defensively than Gonzalez but is a superior offensive player. The idea of going into the year hoping Jed Lowire would be healthy was not the most comforting thought. Scutaro will hit in the either the eight or nine hole in the line up.
Grade -- B
While the signing of Scutaro was almost expected, John Lackey joining the starting rotation was not. The Sox add the former Angels' ace with a five year contract worth $82.5 million. Lackey's career numbers are very similar to Josh Beckett's. A rotation of Lackey, Beckett, Jon Lester, Dice-K and Clay Buchholz with Tim Wakefield and Michael Bowden in reserve is baseball's best. There is speculation that Lackey's signing may pave the way for trading Buchholz to acquire a hitter (Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera). Also with Beckett in the last year of his contract, Lackey gives the organization the option of not being cornered into re-signing Beckett.
Grade -- A-
Thirty-seven year old Mike Cameron was signed for two years, $15.5 million. Cameron is a Gold Glove outfielder with some pop in his bat and reportedly a great clubhouse guy . He does strike out a great deal. At worst, Cameron is the right handed part of the left field platoon. The guess is he gets more at bats than Heredia. Like Scutaro, Cameron is a bottom of the order guy. Again, there is speculation that this signing may result in another deal this time involving involving Jacoby Ellsbury. Cameron, though willing to play left field, is a center fielder by trade.
Grade -- C+
A couple of thoughts ....
As insurance if the club does not re-sign left fielder Jason Bay. The Sox traded lefty reliever Hunter Jones to the Marlins for underachieving outfielder Jeremy Heredia. This seems to be a low risk trade. If Heredia is the everyday left fielder we are in trouble.
Grade -- C
Shortstop Alex Gonzalez does not wait too long and signs for two years with the Blue Jays. Theo plucks free agent shortstop Marco Scutaro for two years. Scutaro is coming off of a career year in Toronto. He is just a stop gap until 20 year old, Cuban defector Jose Iglesias is ready. I like the acquisition. Scutaro is not as good defensively than Gonzalez but is a superior offensive player. The idea of going into the year hoping Jed Lowire would be healthy was not the most comforting thought. Scutaro will hit in the either the eight or nine hole in the line up.
Grade -- B
While the signing of Scutaro was almost expected, John Lackey joining the starting rotation was not. The Sox add the former Angels' ace with a five year contract worth $82.5 million. Lackey's career numbers are very similar to Josh Beckett's. A rotation of Lackey, Beckett, Jon Lester, Dice-K and Clay Buchholz with Tim Wakefield and Michael Bowden in reserve is baseball's best. There is speculation that Lackey's signing may pave the way for trading Buchholz to acquire a hitter (Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera). Also with Beckett in the last year of his contract, Lackey gives the organization the option of not being cornered into re-signing Beckett.
Grade -- A-
Thirty-seven year old Mike Cameron was signed for two years, $15.5 million. Cameron is a Gold Glove outfielder with some pop in his bat and reportedly a great clubhouse guy . He does strike out a great deal. At worst, Cameron is the right handed part of the left field platoon. The guess is he gets more at bats than Heredia. Like Scutaro, Cameron is a bottom of the order guy. Again, there is speculation that this signing may result in another deal this time involving involving Jacoby Ellsbury. Cameron, though willing to play left field, is a center fielder by trade.
Grade -- C+
A couple of thoughts ....
- I would trade Buchholz and Ellsbury for Adrian Gonzalez only if a long term deal with the sweet hitting first baseman could be worked out. I am a big fan of Ellsbury's athleticism and potential. I am not sold on Buchholz. Gonzalez is a star and they cost something to get. He would give us a threesome of Kevin Youkilis, Gonzalez and Victor Martinez hitting in the middle of the line up.
- I like the idea of holding onto the promising minor leaguers like pitcher Casey Kelly, and outfielder Ryan Westmoreland. I realize they do not always pan out (consider the fall of Lars Anderson, and names from the past like Frankie Rodriguez, Andy Marte) but we must have faith in the farm system and the scouting department.
- "Me no likey" the idea of bringing back Johnny Damon. Ditto for signing free agent third baseman Adrian Beltre.
- I enjoyed watching Jason Bay for the last year and a half. The price was simply too high. His absence does leave a void in the line up. My advice to him is to not sign with the Mets. That franchise is where free agents sign and get bad.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
There is no tomorrow
With the opportunity to force a game four tomorrow night, the Sox blew a four run lead in eighth and a two run lead in the ninth.
Jonathon Papelbon entered with two on and two out in the eighth and surrendered a two run single but got the last out. In the ninth , he got the first two outs and appeared to be one batter away from attaining the series saving save.
Papelbon surrendered a single, a walk, a run scoring double, an intentional walk and a game winning two run single. Papelbon had gone twenty-one appearances and twenty-seven innings in his entire playoff career without allowing a run.
The Sox went quietly into the night in the ninth. Jed Lowrie ("Whyyyyyyy") hit for Gonzalez. Ellsbury and Pedrioa both proved to be not up to the task.
As a fan you invest an entire summer to rooting for a team. You spend more time with the players than you do members of your family and in one fall day with the temperatures falling, it all comes to an abrupt end.
Disappointment. Anger. Disbelief.
Visit the blog in the next couple of days for some final thoughts on the 2009 season and the upcoming off season.
Let Red Sox Nation unite and pray to the baseball gods in one clear voice -- "Please, do not let the Yankess win the World Series."
Jonathon Papelbon entered with two on and two out in the eighth and surrendered a two run single but got the last out. In the ninth , he got the first two outs and appeared to be one batter away from attaining the series saving save.
Papelbon surrendered a single, a walk, a run scoring double, an intentional walk and a game winning two run single. Papelbon had gone twenty-one appearances and twenty-seven innings in his entire playoff career without allowing a run.
The Sox went quietly into the night in the ninth. Jed Lowrie ("Whyyyyyyy") hit for Gonzalez. Ellsbury and Pedrioa both proved to be not up to the task.
As a fan you invest an entire summer to rooting for a team. You spend more time with the players than you do members of your family and in one fall day with the temperatures falling, it all comes to an abrupt end.
Disappointment. Anger. Disbelief.
Visit the blog in the next couple of days for some final thoughts on the 2009 season and the upcoming off season.
Let Red Sox Nation unite and pray to the baseball gods in one clear voice -- "Please, do not let the Yankess win the World Series."
Sox 5-1 lead after 4
JD Drew hit a laser 2 run homer in the 4th after Dustin Pedroia's 2 run double in the 3rd gave the Sox the lead.
A couple of observations:
A couple of observations:
- Fenway looks weird. Must be the noon start.
- The home plate umpire has been pretty bad both ways. Gives the high strike and not anything else.
- Clay Buchholz looks okay. He has thrown ONE curve ball for a strike so far. At least he is challenging the Angels.
- Scott Kazmir does not look good at all. Even the outs have been hit hard.
- I'm trying to catch as much of the Cowboy game as I can. They are the worst coached team in football and yes that includes the micro division.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Game 2 and what we know
For Red Sox Nation, Game 2 of the 2009 ALDS is but a distant painful memory. Let us remain focused on the task at hand and deal with what we know.
- We know that the offense has to get better. One run and eight hits in eighteen innings is not good enough. There has been a great deal of analysis recently about the team's inability to hit good pitching. Proof is in the pudding. Lackey and Weaver had the Sox tied up.
- We know that the Red Sox are a dominant team at home. Home cooking is the best remedy for what is ailing us. The offense is better suited for Fenway.
- We know that Lester and Beckett both pitched well enough to win. With both primed to pitch in Games 4 and 5 respectively, the Sox have a chance.
- We know that recent history tells us that there is no more resilient team in all of sports when in a situation like this. The franchise have two (1999, 2003) of the four teams every to win a series after being down 2-0. The Sox are also the only team to come back from a 3-0 deficit. Even just last year, the Sox were down seven runs with nine outs left in their season and come back to win that game, the next game and force a game seven.
- We know that the Sox have to win game 3 before looking towards extending the series. This means that Clay Buchholz is the man on the spot.
- We know that the Angels have every ounce of momentum. Kazmir pitching in Fenway with an opportunity to eliminate the Red Sox is exactly why he was obtained by the Angels.
- We know that the Red Sox are at a crossroads. A loss on Sunday will have ripple effects. The front office will have to make some difficult decisions when answering the ultimate question -- Is this current nucleus good enough? Sure Papelbon, Youkilis, Pedroia, Lester, Ellsbury and Bard are untouchables. Martinez will be with the club for the rest of his contract. Are we seeing the last of the old guard? Varitek's club option for next year is certainly in question. Wakefiled may have thrown his last fluttering knuckler. Lowell is not the same guy. Bay is going to break the bank. Are the Sox willing to pay the man? Beckett has one more year on his contract. A decision to resign him is getting close. Regardless of his numbers since June, Ortiz is not the same hitter that carried the team.
- We know how much better we will feel with a win on Sunday. Just give the team a chance. As Kevin Millar said in the 2004 ALCS, "Don't let us win tomorrow." We know what happened then.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Game 1 Sox @ Angels
There is no editing tonight as I do a running view of tonight's action.
9:37 PM -- A little nervous, the unknown does this to me. Glad to see that The Thumb and Buck Martinez are doing the game. The other TBS announces are pretty bad.
9:45 PM -- Top of the first is complete. Lackey has yet to make the Sox swing and miss. Top three of Ellsbury, Pedroia and V Mart all work deep into the count. Confidence Counter is at 60 out of 100.
9:52 PM -- Lester just walked Abreu on a couple of close pitches. Lester is throwing cheese. I hope this plate umpire does not get too picky.
9:57 PM -- Nice play to end the inning by Lowell.
Disappointed that Baldelli did not make the roster. If Anderson starts a game in the ALDS, that is not a good sign. I'd rather see Drew in versus the lefties. BTW -- Matt Holiday has replaced Jackie Smith as "the sickest man in America".
10:03 PM -- Funny how PITCH TRAX has Ortiz's at bat as 5 balls and no strikes and he ends up grounding out to 1B. Squeeze a cancer survivor but allow the guy with the perpetual loooong face an extra two inches on the outside half, St. Peter take notice.
10:21 PM -- Channel 101 on Direct TV just advertised for the upcoming season of Friday Night Lights ... hold on interference call by Joe West. Replay showed (I ran back the DVR three times) no contact between Ellsbury's swing and Mathis' glove. Was this a case of Mr. West getting a text from the Pearly Gates? Regardless, Pedroia hits a lazy fly to right.
BTW -- Friday Night Lights is one of the best shows on tv. Direct TV viewers get to see it before the episodes air on NBC next spring. Season starts on October 28th. Coach Taylor leaves the Dillon Panthers for the newly reopened East Dillon H.S. while his wife stays as principal of Dillon? Good stuff.
10:37 PM -- Lester in some trouble in the bottom of the 3rd. Two on two out with Torii Hunter up.
10:40 PM -- Joe West is the devil. That 2-2 pitch was a strike!! Hunter walks. Bases loaded. Chances of Vlad walking? About the same as Joe Torre becoming the pitchman for a brand of shampoo.
10:43 PM -- Yesssss! Good thing I am in the man cave. Vlad whiffs. Lester is pretty fired up.
George is having a party!! Lopez Tonight makes me wonder about the other failed late night shows. Remember, ABC's answer to SNL, Fridays? How about the "very funny" Frank show on TBS? Me neither.
10:49 PM -- Question to Buck Martinez : Why are you the only person in the known world who cannot pronounce David Ortiz's last name correctly? Maybe everyone else is wrong and he is right.
The ABSOLUTE WORST late night talk show ever was Magic Johnson's!! Took me a couple of minutes to remember that.
10:57 PM -- Just so we are all clear, Joe West and CB Buckner are both officially part of the conspiracy. How do you not see that tag?
11:06 PM -- Lead off single in the 5th by Bay goes for naught as Lowell dials 6-4-3 and Drew lines out. Confidence Counter has dipped to 58 out of 100.
11:16 PM -- Lester in trouble again after a lead off double to Aybar, sacrifice by Figgins and a walk to Abreu. 1st and 3rd, only 1 out. Hunter up again in an rbi situation.
11:18 PM -- Yikes! 3 run bomb by Hunter to center. He crushed that thing. Angels 3 Sox 0. Confidence Counter plummets to 20 out of 100.
11:24 PM -- Inning ends as A Gonzo makes a great diving to save another run.
11:33 PM -- Lackey is trying to give the Sox a shot. Gonzo swings at ball 3. Two outs Dusty singles and V Mart walks on four pitches. Youk is up 2-0 right now. Game tying swing coming.
11:36 PM -- Joe West (AGAIN!!) bails out Lackey by calling the 3-0 pitch a strike. Youk takes the next one right down the middle. Swings at ball four (no doubt due to West) and then bounces out to third. Exhale.
11:40 PM -- "Not even close". What is CB Buckner doing/thinking? Youk easily had the bag retouched three steps in front of the runner. Makes you wonder what CB stands for? The thing that kills me is he is trying to sell a call that is so bad. I bet you right now, he is thinking he got it right. Could he possibly think that Pedroia got away with one two innings earlier when covering the bag on a bunt?
11:46 PM -- Ellsbury matches Gonzo's play in the 5th by going all out for a ball on the gap.
11:58 PM -- Ramon Ramirez in and he is not getting it done. Abreu walks for the 11th time tonight and he hits Hunter.
12:02 AM -- Ramirez now stabs at a double play grounder, knocks it down and can't make a play. Bases loaded no outs. If Coco Crisp was pitching do you think he would have done worse? Confidence Counter dips to 13 out of 100.
12:11 AM -- Saito enters and gets a bases loaded double play that I have never seen before. Lowell to V Mart and back to Lowell. I feel the worm turning.
12:13 AM -- Morales dumps one into left for an rbi single and Lowell fails to glove the throw to third. Another run. Drew throws out a runner at the plate on a single to right. Last three innings have ended with outstanding plays to save runs. Plus, that is now 3 errors (2 by Lowell) on the Sox. Gross -- Angels 5 Sox 0.
12:31 AM -- Bard just hit a 100 mph. Yawn.
A couple of random thoughts;
9:37 PM -- A little nervous, the unknown does this to me. Glad to see that The Thumb and Buck Martinez are doing the game. The other TBS announces are pretty bad.
9:45 PM -- Top of the first is complete. Lackey has yet to make the Sox swing and miss. Top three of Ellsbury, Pedroia and V Mart all work deep into the count. Confidence Counter is at 60 out of 100.
9:52 PM -- Lester just walked Abreu on a couple of close pitches. Lester is throwing cheese. I hope this plate umpire does not get too picky.
9:57 PM -- Nice play to end the inning by Lowell.
Disappointed that Baldelli did not make the roster. If Anderson starts a game in the ALDS, that is not a good sign. I'd rather see Drew in versus the lefties. BTW -- Matt Holiday has replaced Jackie Smith as "the sickest man in America".
10:03 PM -- Funny how PITCH TRAX has Ortiz's at bat as 5 balls and no strikes and he ends up grounding out to 1B. Squeeze a cancer survivor but allow the guy with the perpetual loooong face an extra two inches on the outside half, St. Peter take notice.
10:21 PM -- Channel 101 on Direct TV just advertised for the upcoming season of Friday Night Lights ... hold on interference call by Joe West. Replay showed (I ran back the DVR three times) no contact between Ellsbury's swing and Mathis' glove. Was this a case of Mr. West getting a text from the Pearly Gates? Regardless, Pedroia hits a lazy fly to right.
BTW -- Friday Night Lights is one of the best shows on tv. Direct TV viewers get to see it before the episodes air on NBC next spring. Season starts on October 28th. Coach Taylor leaves the Dillon Panthers for the newly reopened East Dillon H.S. while his wife stays as principal of Dillon? Good stuff.
10:37 PM -- Lester in some trouble in the bottom of the 3rd. Two on two out with Torii Hunter up.
10:40 PM -- Joe West is the devil. That 2-2 pitch was a strike!! Hunter walks. Bases loaded. Chances of Vlad walking? About the same as Joe Torre becoming the pitchman for a brand of shampoo.
10:43 PM -- Yesssss! Good thing I am in the man cave. Vlad whiffs. Lester is pretty fired up.
George is having a party!! Lopez Tonight makes me wonder about the other failed late night shows. Remember, ABC's answer to SNL, Fridays? How about the "very funny" Frank show on TBS? Me neither.
10:49 PM -- Question to Buck Martinez : Why are you the only person in the known world who cannot pronounce David Ortiz's last name correctly? Maybe everyone else is wrong and he is right.
The ABSOLUTE WORST late night talk show ever was Magic Johnson's!! Took me a couple of minutes to remember that.
10:57 PM -- Just so we are all clear, Joe West and CB Buckner are both officially part of the conspiracy. How do you not see that tag?
11:06 PM -- Lead off single in the 5th by Bay goes for naught as Lowell dials 6-4-3 and Drew lines out. Confidence Counter has dipped to 58 out of 100.
11:16 PM -- Lester in trouble again after a lead off double to Aybar, sacrifice by Figgins and a walk to Abreu. 1st and 3rd, only 1 out. Hunter up again in an rbi situation.
11:18 PM -- Yikes! 3 run bomb by Hunter to center. He crushed that thing. Angels 3 Sox 0. Confidence Counter plummets to 20 out of 100.
11:24 PM -- Inning ends as A Gonzo makes a great diving to save another run.
11:33 PM -- Lackey is trying to give the Sox a shot. Gonzo swings at ball 3. Two outs Dusty singles and V Mart walks on four pitches. Youk is up 2-0 right now. Game tying swing coming.
11:36 PM -- Joe West (AGAIN!!) bails out Lackey by calling the 3-0 pitch a strike. Youk takes the next one right down the middle. Swings at ball four (no doubt due to West) and then bounces out to third. Exhale.
11:40 PM -- "Not even close". What is CB Buckner doing/thinking? Youk easily had the bag retouched three steps in front of the runner. Makes you wonder what CB stands for? The thing that kills me is he is trying to sell a call that is so bad. I bet you right now, he is thinking he got it right. Could he possibly think that Pedroia got away with one two innings earlier when covering the bag on a bunt?
11:46 PM -- Ellsbury matches Gonzo's play in the 5th by going all out for a ball on the gap.
11:58 PM -- Ramon Ramirez in and he is not getting it done. Abreu walks for the 11th time tonight and he hits Hunter.
12:02 AM -- Ramirez now stabs at a double play grounder, knocks it down and can't make a play. Bases loaded no outs. If Coco Crisp was pitching do you think he would have done worse? Confidence Counter dips to 13 out of 100.
12:11 AM -- Saito enters and gets a bases loaded double play that I have never seen before. Lowell to V Mart and back to Lowell. I feel the worm turning.
12:13 AM -- Morales dumps one into left for an rbi single and Lowell fails to glove the throw to third. Another run. Drew throws out a runner at the plate on a single to right. Last three innings have ended with outstanding plays to save runs. Plus, that is now 3 errors (2 by Lowell) on the Sox. Gross -- Angels 5 Sox 0.
12:31 AM -- Bard just hit a 100 mph. Yawn.
A couple of random thoughts;
- Tomorrow's game is pretty close to a must win by the Sox. Beckett needs to step up.
- When I went with this format, I was hoping to run a commentary on the announcers and their commentary. Both have been good. I thought the Thumb got a little too excited after Hunter's homer but he is trying to not be a homer.
- I support Varitek catching Beckett tomorrow. Lowell at 3B was shaky tonight.
12:35 AM -- Bard blows away another guy. Top of the ninth coming.
12:45 AM -- Game over. Sox go down without a whimper. The offense has to show up tomorrow night.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Red Sox vs. Angels
Here we go again. You gotta think that the Angels are about as sick of seeing the Red Sox in the playoffs as I am going to be watching Craig Sager's wardrobe over the next couple of weeks. Regardless, here goes some analysis.
Top ten things (in descending order of importance) that will determine the winner of the series.
10. The Managerial Battle.
Terry Francona and Mike Scioscia both know what they are doing. However, Francona has beaten the Scioscia's team three consecutive times (10-1).
9. Game 3's Starting Pitchers.
Scott Kazmir and Clay Buchholz oppose each other as the series moves to Fenway. Kazmir has always pitched well in Boston. This is Buchholz's first postseason appearance. Game three typically is the pivotal game of a series. Edge Angels.
8. Brian Fuentes.
This guy replaces K-Rod by leading the majors in saves with 48 but blew 7 saves and lost 5 of 6 decisions. Fuentes is a major step down for the Angels of previous years. In fact, their bull pen itself is not the same.
7. The result of Game 1.
I know it is hard to place so much importance on one game but Thursday's outcome may go a long way in determining the winner of the series. The Angels and John Lackey are certainly spooked by the Sox. A victory in the opening game will go a long way in allowing them to exorcise demons from the past three postseason match ups. If the Sox win, the Angels may be toast. I really like the Josh Beckett/ Jerad Weaver match up for the Sox.
6. Chone Figgins versus Jacoby Ellsbury
Simply put -- each team is considerably better when their lead off hitter is getting on base. The Angels have Bobby Abreu, Torri Hunter and Vlad batting behind Figgins. "Danger Will Robinson. Danger!" The same can be said of Ellsbury on base with Dustin Predoria, Victor Martinez and Kevin Youkilis hitting.
5. Team Defense
Extremely underrated aspect of playoff baseball. The Red Sox have played the best defense in the majors since August 15th. Yes, this is Alex Gonzalez time. You can argue his contributions have been greater than Billy Wagner and Victor Martinez. The Angels' ability to play aggressively is well known. However, they are an average defensive team. Hunter in center field and Mathis behind the plate are the only above average defenders.
4. The Red Sox Defending the Stolen Base.
There is no secret that the Red Sox have struggled throwing out would be base stealers. Also, no secret that the Angels steal bases at an alarming rate. Figgins (42) and Abreu (30) are the biggest concerns. I guess the good news is that Brad Penny, John Smoltz and Tom Wakefield will not be throwing in this series. Buchholz's inability to hold runners is a concern.
3. JD Drew and David Ortiz.
Again let's keep this simple -- when one of these guys is driving the ball, the Red Sox are a much better offensive team. If both these guys get hot over the next three weeks, the team's chances to win the World Series increases considerably. I do worry about who is going to hit for Drew when Kazmir pitches. Rocco Baldelli is still a question mark. I do think that Drew plays in game four against Joe Saunders.
2. The Effectiveness of the Red Sox Bull Pen.
While they look great on paper, this group has struggled of late. Daniel Bard, Wagner, Takashi Saito and Ramon Ramirez are all unproven in the playoffs. The key is Jonathon Papelbon. He has yet to allow an earned run in 16 playoff appearances that span over 25 innings. This is truly unbelievable. If the bull pen is able to shorten the game into a situation where the starter only needs to get 18 outs, you have to like the Sox chances in this round.
1. Starting Pitching.
It always comes down to this, doesn't it? Is there a better one-two punch than Lester and Beckett? The Angels have more depth in their rotation. The Sox will have the rotation set up so Lester (on short rest) and Beckett (regular rest) will start four of the five game. If the have a 2-1 lead heading into game four, look for Dice-K to get the start. Lackey (will lose a close game 1) and Weaver do not worry the Sox. Kazmir is a little scary as a sort of wild card. Joe Saunders beats the heck out of average teams but has not beaten good teams consistently.
Prediction: Red Sox in five. The teams split first two games, Angels take game 3, Sox dominate in game 4 and find a way to win game 5.
Feel free to post your own predictions!!!
BTW's
Top ten things (in descending order of importance) that will determine the winner of the series.
10. The Managerial Battle.
Terry Francona and Mike Scioscia both know what they are doing. However, Francona has beaten the Scioscia's team three consecutive times (10-1).
9. Game 3's Starting Pitchers.
Scott Kazmir and Clay Buchholz oppose each other as the series moves to Fenway. Kazmir has always pitched well in Boston. This is Buchholz's first postseason appearance. Game three typically is the pivotal game of a series. Edge Angels.
8. Brian Fuentes.
This guy replaces K-Rod by leading the majors in saves with 48 but blew 7 saves and lost 5 of 6 decisions. Fuentes is a major step down for the Angels of previous years. In fact, their bull pen itself is not the same.
7. The result of Game 1.
I know it is hard to place so much importance on one game but Thursday's outcome may go a long way in determining the winner of the series. The Angels and John Lackey are certainly spooked by the Sox. A victory in the opening game will go a long way in allowing them to exorcise demons from the past three postseason match ups. If the Sox win, the Angels may be toast. I really like the Josh Beckett/ Jerad Weaver match up for the Sox.
6. Chone Figgins versus Jacoby Ellsbury
Simply put -- each team is considerably better when their lead off hitter is getting on base. The Angels have Bobby Abreu, Torri Hunter and Vlad batting behind Figgins. "Danger Will Robinson. Danger!" The same can be said of Ellsbury on base with Dustin Predoria, Victor Martinez and Kevin Youkilis hitting.
5. Team Defense
Extremely underrated aspect of playoff baseball. The Red Sox have played the best defense in the majors since August 15th. Yes, this is Alex Gonzalez time. You can argue his contributions have been greater than Billy Wagner and Victor Martinez. The Angels' ability to play aggressively is well known. However, they are an average defensive team. Hunter in center field and Mathis behind the plate are the only above average defenders.
4. The Red Sox Defending the Stolen Base.
There is no secret that the Red Sox have struggled throwing out would be base stealers. Also, no secret that the Angels steal bases at an alarming rate. Figgins (42) and Abreu (30) are the biggest concerns. I guess the good news is that Brad Penny, John Smoltz and Tom Wakefield will not be throwing in this series. Buchholz's inability to hold runners is a concern.
3. JD Drew and David Ortiz.
Again let's keep this simple -- when one of these guys is driving the ball, the Red Sox are a much better offensive team. If both these guys get hot over the next three weeks, the team's chances to win the World Series increases considerably. I do worry about who is going to hit for Drew when Kazmir pitches. Rocco Baldelli is still a question mark. I do think that Drew plays in game four against Joe Saunders.
2. The Effectiveness of the Red Sox Bull Pen.
While they look great on paper, this group has struggled of late. Daniel Bard, Wagner, Takashi Saito and Ramon Ramirez are all unproven in the playoffs. The key is Jonathon Papelbon. He has yet to allow an earned run in 16 playoff appearances that span over 25 innings. This is truly unbelievable. If the bull pen is able to shorten the game into a situation where the starter only needs to get 18 outs, you have to like the Sox chances in this round.
1. Starting Pitching.
It always comes down to this, doesn't it? Is there a better one-two punch than Lester and Beckett? The Angels have more depth in their rotation. The Sox will have the rotation set up so Lester (on short rest) and Beckett (regular rest) will start four of the five game. If the have a 2-1 lead heading into game four, look for Dice-K to get the start. Lackey (will lose a close game 1) and Weaver do not worry the Sox. Kazmir is a little scary as a sort of wild card. Joe Saunders beats the heck out of average teams but has not beaten good teams consistently.
Prediction: Red Sox in five. The teams split first two games, Angels take game 3, Sox dominate in game 4 and find a way to win game 5.
Feel free to post your own predictions!!!
BTW's
- Watch out for Angels' first baseman Kendry Morales at the bottom of their order. He was a beast in the regular season.
- Ellsbury is going to emerge in this series as one of the most exciting players in baseball.
- Scioscia will be on the field arguing a call at least three times in the series.
- Big props to a personal old friend that just got a big time job! Peter Abraham, formerly of the Norwich Bulletin, has left a job covering the Yankess (and writing an outstanding blog) to landing a position at the Boston Globe writing a blog on www.boston.com The Yankees loss is the Red Sox gain.
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