Red Sox vs. Angels

Here we go again. You gotta think that the Angels are about as sick of seeing the Red Sox in the playoffs as I am going to be watching Craig Sager's wardrobe over the next couple of weeks. Regardless, here goes some analysis.

Top ten things (in descending order of importance) that will determine the winner of the series.

10. The Managerial Battle.

Terry Francona and Mike Scioscia both know what they are doing. However, Francona has beaten the Scioscia's team three consecutive times (10-1).

9. Game 3's Starting Pitchers.

Scott Kazmir and Clay Buchholz oppose each other as the series moves to Fenway. Kazmir has always pitched well in Boston. This is Buchholz's first postseason appearance. Game three typically is the pivotal game of a series. Edge Angels.

8. Brian Fuentes.

This guy replaces K-Rod by leading the majors in saves with 48 but blew 7 saves and lost 5 of 6 decisions. Fuentes is a major step down for the Angels of previous years. In fact, their bull pen itself is not the same.

7. The result of Game 1.

I know it is hard to place so much importance on one game but Thursday's outcome may go a long way in determining the winner of the series. The Angels and John Lackey are certainly spooked by the Sox. A victory in the opening game will go a long way in allowing them to exorcise demons from the past three postseason match ups. If the Sox win, the Angels may be toast. I really like the Josh Beckett/ Jerad Weaver match up for the Sox.

6. Chone Figgins versus Jacoby Ellsbury

Simply put -- each team is considerably better when their lead off hitter is getting on base. The Angels have Bobby Abreu, Torri Hunter and Vlad batting behind Figgins. "Danger Will Robinson. Danger!" The same can be said of Ellsbury on base with Dustin Predoria, Victor Martinez and Kevin Youkilis hitting.

5. Team Defense

Extremely underrated aspect of playoff baseball. The Red Sox have played the best defense in the majors since August 15th. Yes, this is Alex Gonzalez time. You can argue his contributions have been greater than Billy Wagner and Victor Martinez. The Angels' ability to play aggressively is well known. However, they are an average defensive team. Hunter in center field and Mathis behind the plate are the only above average defenders.

4. The Red Sox Defending the Stolen Base.

There is no secret that the Red Sox have struggled throwing out would be base stealers. Also, no secret that the Angels steal bases at an alarming rate. Figgins (42) and Abreu (30) are the biggest concerns. I guess the good news is that Brad Penny, John Smoltz and Tom Wakefield will not be throwing in this series. Buchholz's inability to hold runners is a concern.

3. JD Drew and David Ortiz.

Again let's keep this simple -- when one of these guys is driving the ball, the Red Sox are a much better offensive team. If both these guys get hot over the next three weeks, the team's chances to win the World Series increases considerably. I do worry about who is going to hit for Drew when Kazmir pitches. Rocco Baldelli is still a question mark. I do think that Drew plays in game four against Joe Saunders.

2. The Effectiveness of the Red Sox Bull Pen.

While they look great on paper, this group has struggled of late. Daniel Bard, Wagner, Takashi Saito and Ramon Ramirez are all unproven in the playoffs. The key is Jonathon Papelbon. He has yet to allow an earned run in 16 playoff appearances that span over 25 innings. This is truly unbelievable. If the bull pen is able to shorten the game into a situation where the starter only needs to get 18 outs, you have to like the Sox chances in this round.

1. Starting Pitching.

It always comes down to this, doesn't it? Is there a better one-two punch than Lester and Beckett? The Angels have more depth in their rotation. The Sox will have the rotation set up so Lester (on short rest) and Beckett (regular rest) will start four of the five game. If the have a 2-1 lead heading into game four, look for Dice-K to get the start. Lackey (will lose a close game 1) and Weaver do not worry the Sox. Kazmir is a little scary as a sort of wild card. Joe Saunders beats the heck out of average teams but has not beaten good teams consistently.

Prediction: Red Sox in five. The teams split first two games, Angels take game 3, Sox dominate in game 4 and find a way to win game 5.

Feel free to post your own predictions!!!

BTW's

• Watch out for Angels' first baseman Kendry Morales at the bottom of their order. He was a beast in the regular season.
• Ellsbury is going to emerge in this series as one of the most exciting players in baseball.
• Scioscia will be on the field arguing a call at least three times in the series.
• Big props to a personal old friend that just got a big time job! Peter Abraham, formerly of the Norwich Bulletin, has left a job covering the Yankess (and writing an outstanding blog) to landing a position at the Boston Globe writing a blog on www.boston.com The Yankees loss is the Red Sox gain.